2008: Looking Forward
Currently, if you type the words "Libby" and "pardon" into Google, this blog is the first site that is returned in the search. Thus, I have little doubt that my work here contributed a great deal to my appearances with National Review online, National Journal, The Hill, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times and other newspapers of note. Last month, I had the highest number of visitors (13,000 plus) since I began this blog early last year. I think all of this suggests there are many more positive things to come. So, I thought I would use this entry to forecast ahead. Here goes:
First, I do believe that President Bush will pardon more people in the last year of his presidency than he has in any of the other seven years that he has been in office. I may be wrong, but the source of my belief is purely empirical. Most of the Nation's presidents have done the very same thing (see discussion and several charts here).
I also believe President Bush will grant the highest number of pardons in the month of December. Again, the source of my belief is purely empirical. He has clearly emphasized December to date (see chart here) and the same has been true for recent presidents (see discussion and several additional charts here).
To many, of course, the question is whether or not Bush will grant a full and unconditional pardon to Scooter Libby. The very existence of this blog suggests that it is reasonable to expect such a pardon, but I am not (and never have been) nearly so certain about that as many others. For example, from the very beginning, I guessed Bush would grant a respite, delaying any more elevated decision as long as possible. I also reasoned that, if the Republicans were to somehow win the White House in 2008, Bush would not be granting a pardon at all. Of course, if the Democrats win, it is another ball game. Still, I think the situation that Ronald Reagan found himself in with respect to Oliver North might be worth remembering.
Finally, there is my "pardon watch list" (here). Do I expect everyone on the list to be pardoned? Certainly not. But what I have done (and will continue to do) is provide, in one place, a list of individuals whose cases have received more attention than others and who enjoy organized support and public calls for clemency. It will certainly be interesting to see what the impact of these efforts will be when all is said and done.
As always, I will employ data and my knowledge of the history of federal executive clemency to news items and editorial commentary as they arise. I will also spell out - after long delay - what I see as the proper path to clemency reform, what I have dubbed "the political path" (see initial commentary here and here).
If this blog interests you and you have contact with a publisher, please contact my agent, Sam Fleishman. We have a clean, finished, readable and highly praised manuscript ready to go. And I promise discussions of the pardon power will never quite be the same after the printing of my book.
P.S. Ruckman, Jr.
First, I do believe that President Bush will pardon more people in the last year of his presidency than he has in any of the other seven years that he has been in office. I may be wrong, but the source of my belief is purely empirical. Most of the Nation's presidents have done the very same thing (see discussion and several charts here).
I also believe President Bush will grant the highest number of pardons in the month of December. Again, the source of my belief is purely empirical. He has clearly emphasized December to date (see chart here) and the same has been true for recent presidents (see discussion and several additional charts here).
To many, of course, the question is whether or not Bush will grant a full and unconditional pardon to Scooter Libby. The very existence of this blog suggests that it is reasonable to expect such a pardon, but I am not (and never have been) nearly so certain about that as many others. For example, from the very beginning, I guessed Bush would grant a respite, delaying any more elevated decision as long as possible. I also reasoned that, if the Republicans were to somehow win the White House in 2008, Bush would not be granting a pardon at all. Of course, if the Democrats win, it is another ball game. Still, I think the situation that Ronald Reagan found himself in with respect to Oliver North might be worth remembering.
Finally, there is my "pardon watch list" (here). Do I expect everyone on the list to be pardoned? Certainly not. But what I have done (and will continue to do) is provide, in one place, a list of individuals whose cases have received more attention than others and who enjoy organized support and public calls for clemency. It will certainly be interesting to see what the impact of these efforts will be when all is said and done.
As always, I will employ data and my knowledge of the history of federal executive clemency to news items and editorial commentary as they arise. I will also spell out - after long delay - what I see as the proper path to clemency reform, what I have dubbed "the political path" (see initial commentary here and here).
If this blog interests you and you have contact with a publisher, please contact my agent, Sam Fleishman. We have a clean, finished, readable and highly praised manuscript ready to go. And I promise discussions of the pardon power will never quite be the same after the printing of my book.
P.S. Ruckman, Jr.
posted by P.S. Ruckman, Jr. | 9:40 PM
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